Tuesday , October 26 2021

Fresh aquaculture industry: Growth expectation in 2019 – Livestock – Stock exchanges and finance



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Many breeders this quarter have produced quarterly figures and Salmar is the clear winner so far.

"This quarter was a little bit different," says Tore Tønseth, a seafood analyst at Sparebank1 Markets to E24.

– Which company did you do well?

"It's Salmar, which has a particularly strong quarter," he says.

What analysts most often see at a farming firm is operational EBIT, a figure that shows the company's basic operational status before adjusting for changes in the value of operating EBIT (fish).

Marine Harvest and Salmar are among the companies that have provided strong operating energies in the third quarter of last year than last year.

On the other hand, there was a decrease in operating ebits for Bakkafrost, Norway Royal Salmon, Grieg seafood, Austevoll seafood, Lerøy seafood and NTS (see table at bottom of case).

Leroy Seafood and Bakkafrost, measured in the light of analyst expectations, were disappointed at the ebit in the campaign, while Marine Harvest and Salmar surpassed expectations.

cut down the money

Salmar points out that the cost of central Norway is very low, says Tønseth.

"As a result, after a lot of loopholes in 2015-16 with high costs, the cost of production in central Norway has reached NOK 32. We have to go back a few years to start trading."

A strong figure on Friday raised Salmar shares by 8.5 percent for the day. This year's share price has more than doubled from 246 to 498 kroner.

I was disappointed in the growth.

Some of this year's stocks have fallen since the quarterly report, which showed a significant increase this year. One of the biggest smells is Norway Royal Salmon.

– Norwegian king salmon was disappointed in growth. The market predicted 44,000 tons next year, but the company delivered 40,000 tons. According to Tønseth, shares also fell 15%.

While many companies expect higher output this year (see table), demand is also increasing.

"Although there was some dissemination in the instructions, overall it shows the next year's volume higher than Kontali Analysis," says Tønseth.

– Volume in 2019 indicates a flood or a moderate inflation. There are available fish, and I think that supply and demand are not balanced in the next year. "

Sparebank1 Markets predicts a salmon price of 62KN next year, and Fishpool's price is 64KN in 2019.

Our estimates for volume this year and next year are as follows.

party 2018 volume Volume 2019
Marine harvesting 380,000 tons 430,000 tons
Bakkafrost 46,000 tons 53,000 tons
Norwegian king salmon 36,000 tons 40,000 tons
Grig seafood 75,000 tons 82,000 tons
Lerøy seafood (salmon and trout) 179,000 tons 190,000 tons
Salmar 143,000 tons 145,000 tons

Source: Company quarterly reports and presentations

Pending recovery

So far, listed Norwegian and international producers have estimated that more fish will be on the market next year.

– Shares of listed companies are up 5.1% in Norway next year and slightly higher than we expect consensus. Most of them are based on 4% growth next year, says Tønseth.

Listed companies account for about half of Norwegian output, analysts pointed out.

"Listed companies globally predict volume growth of 9.2 percent next year," says Tønseth.

– These do not provide a complete picture because they account for one-third of the world's production. However, this figure indicates a somewhat higher growth rate than the market where global production increased by 4-5% in 2019. Our estimate is 5.2%.

Third quarter farmhouse statistics:

Company (currency) Profit after tax third quarter. 2,018 Waiting lips. Tax after the third quarter. 2018 (SME / TDN) resolution. Tax after the third quarter. 2,017 Operating ebit 3. kv. 2,018 Operational standby
ebit, third quarter 2,018
Operating ebit 3. kv. 2,017
Marine Harvesting (Euro) 53.9 mill. 154 wheat. 150.9 mill. 207.1 mill. 205 wheat. 194.2 Mill.
Bacary frost (DKK) 355.9 mill. 139 wheat. 56.2 mill. 142.4 mill. 190 mil. 212.2 mill.
Norwegian Royal Salmon (NOK) 141.6 mill. 175.5 mill. 35.5 mil. 192.4 mill.
The League seafood (NOK) 220.4 mill. 182.5 mill. 159.7 mill. 229.3 mill.
Austevoll Seafood (NOK) 303.2 mill. 171.2 Mill. 770.7 mill. 822 mill.
Lerøy seafood (NOK) 528.6 mill. 554 mill. 302.7 mill. 660.1 mill. 737 mill. 861.3 mill.
NTS (NOK) 96.5 mill. 86.0 mill. 84.7 mill. 11.1 million
Salma (NOK) 922.2 mill. 590 mill. 968.5 mill. 939.1 wheat. 752 mill. 801.3 mill.
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