According to data from the Central Statistical Bureau on foreign trade in Latvia, the value of commodity exports in September fell for the first time in the past six months. The export value of goods in September was generally high and exceeded the € 1 billion this month, but commodity exports were 1% lower than last September.
A small decline in total exports of FM has been explained this fall as exports of grains and rapeseed are expected to decline in the past due to a decline in grain crops and a decrease in re-exports of certain electrical equipment and machinery. "Except for the decline in exports of these products, total exports in September will be 3.9% higher than in September of last year," the Cabinet added.
The biggest negative impact on the change in export value of agricultural products and food products was observed in September due to the decline in grain and oil export. Traditionally, grains with the highest grain and rape exports are available in fall, but in September this year the export value of these products increased by 3.8% and 76.8%, respectively, compared with the previous month.
"The unexpected dry weather in Latvia this summer affected the yields and affected export data and it is likely that the export value of autumn will be lower than the other months of the year." The decline in agricultural and food exports in September this year was 11.5% He said.
September exports declined slightly, with exports of timber and wood products, which were affected by an increase in log exports to Estonia and the United Kingdom and an increase in exports of unprocessed wood to Sweden, an increase of 17.7%.
"Despite the fact that timber exports for wood products have achieved the highest export value since 1995, this commodity export group has been a major driver of exports for the first nine months of 2018 and has made the biggest contribution to export growth. Up 8.3% year-on-year, and more than one-third contributed to the growth of timber exports. "
Of the other product groups affected by the September export change, FM noted that exports of chemicals increased 8.7% in relation to the growth of pharmaceutical exports to Lithuania. The 7.9% increase in metal exports was attributable to an increase in steel exports to Turkey and an increase in exports of ferrous and non-alloy steel and rods to EU countries.
"When assessing Latvia's mid-term export prospects, from early this year, negative risks have risen and uncertainties surrounding the global environment in relation to the rise of protection trade world trade can limit export growth, but the atmosphere of EU entrepreneurs remains high But the dynamics in recent months have declined and the economy The value of the Emotional Index of October this year reached its lowest level since mid-last year, and the assessment of the Latvian industry's product prospects in the fourth quarter of this year is somewhat I'm down. "
Likewise, FM acknowledged that the factors that determine the decline in exports in September are not related to the decline in external demand. However, the most recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Update, which was renewed in October this year, saw global trade volume fall by 0.6 percentage points to 4.2 percent this year, This is mainly explained by the increase in protection trade world trade.
"The IMF has already reduced world trade growth from the previous economic outlook recovered in July of this year, which has resulted in an even greater risk of global foreign trade since the middle of the year, The average growth rate for the first nine months of this year is lower than 8.3 percent, "he said.