Saturday , May 28 2022

US dollar to keep track of the pound falters in Brexit hard



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The American midterms came and went and if we did not need more volatility and uncertainty, we now have a split in Washington.

For once, the projections were just enough with the Democrats, who took the House of Representatives, while the Republicans took the Senate. This will lead Donald Trump and his future policy prefix. This situation shows Washington in political knee, making it easier to get the president to get his agenda and this could lead to a curious end for this year and the beginning of # 39; the following.

The US dollar index has the midterm, but has held a lot of costly action. We see the index going to 97.50 level before the support was 96, above what we see a good consolidation. I store my dollar reductions and expect to see the consolidation above 97 levels by December.

The economic calendar of America is over the next two weeks; Some of the major versions I've seen include the US GDP lecture for the third quarter (due to today) expected 3.5 percent fourth. Tomorrow see the release of the PCE deflator, measuring the price of goods and services produced in & # 39; United Kingdom Consumers.

Each beat on a year-to-year figure would provide a short term in & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; American activa. This was followed by the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on Thursday. Try an aaisykje for the report of & # 39; the nonfarm of & # 39; the United States on December 7; Expectations are for students to grow up to + 205,000, with average earnings per year on 0.3 per month. Previously, growth in & # 39; weeks of & # 39; The weekly percentage dollar long positions. And ultimately, the US data is disclosed by the general inflation print on December 12.

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With the American mid-range out of the way, they sell their attention back to the United Kingdom and the EU. About the weekend, the EU has ratified the proposal of Theresia May Brexit and now returns to the United Kingdom as a woman May begins in a heady campaign to support her plan in # 39; led to the parliamentary vote that takes place in two weeks.

Female funds see that Mrs May is a tremendous task for her as she opposes her own party to get this deal. The last table is 409 MPs against & # 39; Action (of which 90 of the Conservative Party of May), while 230 are for their deal. As with all political events these days, this will be difficult to talk, but one thing is certain – to grow volatility in pounds in the first two weeks of the coming month.

In the past month, we expected that they hit a GBP / USD strike to 1.27 levels (November 15, 2012, the US dollar is as low as 1.2723 to Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange.) The pound has been consolidated since the population of 1.2780, but is clearly out of date .

Permanent pessimism at & # 39; e autumn of & # 39; In May, sales can be seen in 1.2660 / 1.2680 channel with 1-2930 levels. If women can not break this transition, Brexit will negotiate negotiations on a square that will go a long term – to earn more parts in & # 39; It puts a point down to 1.20 against the dollar in a worst case.

With two weeks of trade to go, it would be difficult to short-term positions with small profits in & # 39; to build the lead until the week of December 10, at which point traders must limit their pound exhibitions in the United States.

Just as it pounds, the euro will remain under pressure against the Greenback. After midtimes, the common chocolate is as low as 1.12 levels before rallying to 1.1470. Free economic developments of Italy's competition with EU budget rules have taken important interests. However, in December, the euro expected to stay under pressure from Brexit. Expecting that a weak EUR / USD is expected, the number goes ahead for a move to 1.12, a record of 1.15 afterwards.

Gaurav Kashyap is a trading strategist at Equiti Global Markets. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Equity

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