The Australian dollar is up again rallying during the trading session on Friday to show signs of strength, but is starting to wrestle a bit with the 200 day EMA as I write this. Because of this, I think it’s very likely that the market will continue to see some hesitation, and it’s worth noting that we are just above the 0.74 level, an area that has been important more than once. Because of this, it would not surprise me at all to look back a little at this point. However, if we close above the 200-day EMA, then I think the market is primed to go much higher.
AUD / USD Video 18.10.21
More than anything else I think the market has just gone ahead and it will probably see some problems. With that in mind, I do think it’s probably a scenario where you’re looking to the top, but you may need to pull back a bit to take advantage of the trend that’s trying to form. That being said, if we were to pull back below the 50-day EMA, it could change everything and send this market lower.
Although most commodity currencies are doing very well against the US dollar, for the most part Australia is still a closed economy. That does not help the situation here, and of course as a result it makes this market a little riskier than something like the Canadian dollar having oil that makes it back up.
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