Thursday , January 27 2022

Our life will be deeper: it will bring upsourcing 2019 – Market & Profit


The analysts of CIB Bank expect an average annual average of more than 3% of inflation and economic growth for 2019. In a less supportable foreign environment, the engine of economy continues to be internalized, supported by a boost labor market, dynamic lean plans and living expenses.

Based on a consensus-based consequence of # 39; The CIB Bank expected the PVP growth of 4% over the previous year in 2018. The most significant threat behind this is still the growth of domestic demand (meant by the consumption of households, stimulated by fiscal) and the support of EU funds. GDP grew by 4.7% in the first half of # a year, and this disaster will measure for the rest of the year – he said. Trippon Mariann, a leading analyst at CIB's press conference organized by the bank.

Taking into account the development of the external environment and the expected use of EU funding, the sluggish will be released in 2019. The expected value between 3-3.5% is, however, not far from the average of the previous five years. In the coming years, domestic consumption will dip the growth of growth, especially domestic consumption and investment will be decisive. In parallel with the weakening of domestic questions, up to 2020 can be exported positively positively to growth.

Today you can increase interest in the fat

Image: SXC

The annual average inflation increases the 3% threshold

After the introduction of figures less or expected in the first quarter of 2018, the consumer price indexer was more likely to be considered original. Therefore, the average for this year as fewer targets of a percentage point higher than expected, according to CIB Bank's for November to 2.9%. In & # 39; Over the past few months, the consumer price in & # 39; The 3% threshold is the surface of the strip around the center of & # 39; the central bank (2-4%) present in October. While swamping of the main fluid mainly by increasing the number of product groups outside the area of ​​†<†< the central bank, the inflation pressure gradually only confines in economy. This is supported by the core inflation index and the MNB core indicators so that the conflict can bring 3,5% annually in 2019.

More ambitious budget budget with increasing performance risk

The first three quarter of this year represents a fiscal scenario that is comparable to 2017: while the ESA deficit-proporable GDP is projected (2.4%) or even lower (in 2017 it is 2% instead of 2.4) was a major change in plan, especially by closing # 39; EU pre-financing and related transfers. With higher levels of GDP and higher liens, steady power will not be a problem, so the 3% deficit Maastricht is not expected to be a threat. We can see a special fiscal process in 2019, but it's already a deficit (1.8%), with higher tax burden risk, with the only diverse role of EU funds.

Normalization in monetary terms, with different rates of interest

The monetary council of the National Bank of Hungary (MNB) also consented to this year on non-conventive measures with multiple interest rates (0.90%) and negative O / N depots (-0.15%). To keep this amount or to keep the minimum amount of the 3 months of deposit well under the base rate, the BUBOR and reach the reach. A long term communication with long-term persistence of persistently released monetary conditions was more intense in summer, and after announcing the closure of the ECB's quantitative easing program in September, the MNB also changed the use of nonconvinced asses. The base rate may remain unchanged from the end of 2019 with the upcoming inflation and global processes as a result of the upcoming BUBOR level. After the end of the year an increase in central bank depository may be expected, in line with the expected ECB's interest rate. The advance continues to be fixed, but at weaker level the 315-325 can move against the euro.

Less support foreign affairs

In the second and third quarters is improving & # 39; The short term growth of people who are central to the global economic performance. At the same time, the inflation is regularly monitored, the appetite also anticipates injection. Geopolitical risks (especially the Middelite situation and North Korea led conflict) were aggravated by the development of fiscal and trade policy of # 39; the United States, such as the longing and unwanted Brexit preparation process.

Currently, trading policy stages are one of the greatest risks – s in the world of & # 39; The overall growth of the output and in terms of the performance of capital markets – a prepayment in the # 39; The IMF prognosis is given. The science of emerging markets, combined with the delinquency that affects the Chinese appearance, is strongly influenced by the rise in US interest and the appreciation of & # 39; the dollar. With the most serious effects, economies can calculate external and internal vulnerability. Both the global risk model and the domestic and monetary policy, which are well-defined by the Fed and the ECB policy, are stricter. In December, this is a further interest in foreign-sector (this will be a total of four years), while in Frankfurt the decision to halve the QE program for the fourth quarter of the year and end of December 2019 was decided in # 39; the summer. The level of interest rate is expected to remain close to the next year and next year, but it can begin in the last quarter of 2019, which can be continued by the rise in negative negatives.

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