Investing.com – BTG Pactual demands a report on forecasts for 2019 on Tuesday (27). The treasures of the bank run from R $ 3.40 to R $ 5.00, calculated from the evaluation of the future trajectory of the Brazilian risk (CDS from 10 years) and from the rate of # the United States. To handle the behavior of these two variables in # 39; the dollar developed the following year, three different scenarios developed the realization of reformers and how they are affecting a fiscal adjustment to realize public accommodations .
The first scenario is the basis that usually indicates the analysis of analyst Iana Ferrão, which reports the report. In this scenario, Brazilian risk is the next year at 225 points, while the US Treasury increases to 3.5%, making the US currency to R $ 3.90, the same level as December 2018. In this case, it's It is necessary that a justified reformer of Social Security is approved, combined with additional measures that keep the feasibility and the functioning of the ceiling of & # 39; raising costs.
This basic example of BTG combines with the analysis of the Itaú BBA team shortly after the election of Jair Bolsonaro (PSL), which also ends the end of the year on the dollar at R $ 3.90. In view of the largest private bank, the lowest country risk in 2019 is offset by the reduction of & # 39; Interest in relation to United States, after the revision of # 39; the expectation of the preservation of Selic 's rate at 6.5% per year – to earlier 8% -, by the continuation of a patient incident. BTG Pactual's scenario, however, sees the bank a pessimistic pessimistic for the dollar in 2019 compared to the medical market presented by the Focus Bulletin. The central bank's court presents a performance of R $ 3.80 for the US currency at end of # 39; next year.
The other two scenarios are an alternative evaluation. The so-called "benine" subsidy shuts the dollar that will close next year to R $ 3.40, with the risk that Brazil returns to 150 points and the 10-year interest rate of US Treasury remains at the current level of approximately 3% per year in 2019. For this favorable scenario, the pension reform must be well-understood, the efforts of workers' a private sector, civil service and military. In addition, other measures to promote fiscal adjustment together with pro-productivity reforms in the context of the context.
Dollar to R $ 5,00
On other side, in & # 39; an adverse cartridge exits Brazil's risk at 400 points and the US Treasury interest rate goes down to 4%, which leads to a strong exchange evaluation with the dollar rising $ 5.00. This scenario is accepted as the pension reform is approved, but only reaching the private rules of private sector workers. In addition, any political resignation by the elected government of Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) for other measures related to fiscal adjustment, has a major impact on this strong devaluation scenario.
The three scenarios presented by BTG Pactual, expect the maintenance of the power of & quot; a dollar against other global motions and the enjoyable appreciation in the price of commodities on & # 39; the international market. For the exchange, the bank means the power of US dollar in # last week. O has operated at the 97-point level, the highest level since April 2017. A reduction of this level to the 90-point home, which is passed between January and March of this year, would have to push the reality for $ 0.30 per dollar.
Meanwhile, the science prizes, expected by the Thomson Reuters / Jefferies Commodities CRB Index, expect to be up to 184 points at the end of 2019, from 180 January.
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