With the growth of the global economy, demand for oil, gas and even coal is increasing. After three years of stagnation, greenhouse gas emissions are increasing again. Capgemini warns that the purpose of the Paris Convention becomes more difficult to achieve.
The light is red. Despite almost 100% barrel price increases since January 2016, World oil demand grew 1.6% in 2017.It is much larger than the annual average 1% increase over the past decade. Global demand for gas increased 3%.
Only China accounts for about 30% of the increase.. But in Europe, after declining between 2010 and 2014, gas demand will increase by 6.5% in 2016 and by 5% in 2017. Even coal is so embarrassing, but in 2017, demand reverses the observed trend of 1% globally over the past two years. This increase is mainly due to Asian demand due to the increase in electricity production due to coal.
result : GHG emissions increase again after three years of stagnationIn 2017 and reached a record level of 32.5 gig tons. These are some of the findings of a new edition of the global energy market, Capgemini's Global Observatory of Energy Markets Capgemini.
"This growth rate can be explained by global economic growth that increases global energy demand and can increase with population growth and the level of life in many countries. The price increase did not hinder this growth of energy demand." Capgemini's Colette Lewiner Analysis, Senior Advisor to Energy and Utilities.
Climate goals that are difficult to reach
As a result, the fragile goal of keeping the world's temperature rise below 2 degrees in 2030 under the Paris Convention in 2015 is much more difficult to achieve. "I am not optimistic about this. Colette Lewiner warns. By signing the 2015 commitment to the participating countries, we have reached an overall temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius, which is very detrimental. I do not know how the government can strengthen their commitments in the current economic climate. In 2050, global warming was limited to 1.5 ° C.
"The measures taken by the European Union to achieve higher carbon prices are generally insufficient, and the price of 20 euros / tonne is not enough.
We know that US President Donald Trump has opted out of the Paris Convention, which undermines global efforts to prevent global warming. However, in 2017, energy-related greenhouse gas emissions have continued to decline in the United States, but have declined more slowly than in the past.
"There is often no decline in regional renewable energy subsidies. Colette Lewiner. Despite everything, Consumption of cars will decrease.Shale gas will replace coal. So it is unclear if US greenhouse gas emissions will increase, but according to the Paris Convention, the United States has promised to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28%. The US economy is running at full speed, so far, "he said.
In Europe, climate targets are threatened. The European Union plans to cut CO2 emissions by 20% by 2020 compared to 1990. But 43% in 2030 and 60% in 2040 are difficult to see.According to data released by the European Commission, emissions from the ETS sector increased by 1.8% in 2017, the first increase in seven years. "This shows that the measures taken by the European Union to achieve higher carbon prices are generally insufficient. The price of 20 euros / ton is not enough. It should arrive at about 55 euros per ton. " I appeal to Colette Lewiner.
China, the world's second largest energy consumer and the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, is expected to increase emissions, but it has not abolished the Paris Convention. It is actively developing renewable energy. – It installed 53GW photovoltaic capacity in 2017, which accounts for almost half of the world's new solar installations. And the Blue Sky policy aims to reduce the share of coal and increase gas.
"But there is the rest of the world. For example, India still consumes a lot of coal., And its population will exceed that of China. We can not blame them on many African countries with many unlit areas because their needs and priorities are different. But it contributes to the threat of climate goals. "