For much of this decade, Ivor Frischknecht was the director of the Australian Renewable Energy Agency and saw thousands of proposals for the development of new sustainable energy technology and new energy business plans that swept away its separation.
Some of them were angry and inspiring, some of them were a bit tired and weak, and some felt that they were attractive, but did not set up. Some of them were financed and most of them did not.
However, Frischknecht has set itself a unique perspective on Australian non-destructive energy, and of technology and new thinking needed to make Australia a 100-percent sustainable energy future.
Last week Frischknecht had to provide the annual Solar Orientation to Australian National University on this subject and soon talked to Renew Economy how to look for such future what it would take to get there, and what of & # 39; the biggest challenges.
What is the most remarkable about the discussion with Frischknecht is that the technologists we need are all here altogether. Yes, some of them will continue to fall in price, and will be in # 39; the case of batteries is needed.
But it is not so much technical things that dominate the future energy system – wind, sun and storage – but how we use that would be the biggest problem.
The first is the addition to the concept of "basic taxation" and the idea that we need to have to coincide with coal generating. The federal government has incorporated this thinking by referencing "fair dinkum power", at least to the intervention of billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes, to announce that durable and storage are also fairer forces.
"We have society and business that is designed to work baseless, but there is no reason for them to do it necessary," says Frischknecht.
"We put all these efforts to meet the demand of kool, which means that sustainability should be the question profile."
But that is not needed, he says. Many households understand how they can change the question after the day, and are industrious. "Many industrial users will be better off when using electricity when it's cheap, and there is no doubt that it's like the sun shines and the wind is."
For some companies, this will be a slow process. It is difficult, for example, for a decennial-old aluminum bird to radically alter its equipment and utensils. But there is a great potential that this should happen, and when older equipment is agreed, it will be replaced by bicycles and operating systems.
The second major problem is the level of storage needed by a sustainable grid. This requires storage and the substantial lack of storage capacity is often colored and encouraged to discuss worker goals of 50 per cent sustainable energy at state and federal levels.
This is simply unnecessary, and certainly not at the level of durable energy in Australia now, and present after 2030, since all incomes and flexibility have already been introduced in the grid to support stagnant limestone generation and with swarms in demand.
"Unless you get 50 to 50 durables, bug – everything is required," says Frischknecht. And even with 76 percent need the need for 100GWh, less than a third of what would be supplied by a project like Snowy 2.0. More storage will come through batteries, other pompers hydro-schemes and solar thermal. and by the time the country comes to 100% durable supplies, batteries in electrical appliances.
The above graph shows the highest level of storage for 100 percent sustainable from all the studies he has seen. And Snowy 2.0 gets a lot of this way. "They are fairly conservative, and sensitive assumptions," says Frischknecht. "No one takes anything bad."
On the other hand, the capacity must be needed for the grid – the need for capability and capability to short peak fragments for short periods – is important. "We speak a lot of capacities," he says. But inverter-based technology could do a lot of it. The peaks are only for short periods.
The third key element is demand management. As the question is flexible – and in many industries, it is often the amount of & # 39; the storage and flexible capacities that are called above, greatly reduced.
"We say that we all need new new capacities, but if it's possible in the form of long-term interrogation, then we can change it," says Frischknecht.
Another important component is the role of decentralized sun. Currently, nearly 2 million homes like 8GW of optocht alone – that has so much 20% of all households and 4% of the total generation.
Freshknecht has said that Australia with 80 percent can be earned, and with the size of larger systems – a few years ago, an average of 6.8kW of 1.5kW – that's a lot of extra capacity that & # 39; by using new systems and relocation.
This could include the total contribution of earned energy up to 40 to 50 percent, including storage.
Here, however, it is important that the merchant has visibility of these installations, first knowing what's going on, and twenty how it's processed in the system. Right now there is no capacity to load on some areas of the grid because the operator is blindly flying. This means that one keyword missing.
The networks are far better and one of the current results is that many households and businesses can not install solar installations or can not export. This is to capture the capture of 'networks' and to integrate the entire system to sunlight, so everyone has a conservative approach.
"The old paradigm is that the system ends at a meter, and everything behind it is not visible, not relevant," says Frischknecht. "Now we have to change this paradigm, so customers are visible, they are known and we can get involved." This experience can be very passive, but at least it can be enabled to add this opportunity. "
One of the greatest frustrations for many in # The energy bridge is the lack of energy saving focus in the past ten years, and earlier, despite the long-standing status as the cheapest and most efficient tool for us to try to reduce costs and emissions.
In California, the economy is two and a whole times bigger than Australia and it has a higher income per capita, and one of the strongest economies of # 39; The world, but its energy is around 200 terwatttimes, almost as the capital of Australia.
"We were able to double energy efficiency efficiently, so each of the energy exchanges would stop," says Frischknecht. Incredible governments see the problem, and there have been many assessments, but little has been done. He does that Labor has to do as he chooses to do.
Fresh Knecht finds that a series of viewers are needed for new network investments from zero to massive peoples. He feels we have to think about micrograms and use them to get "just independence" in some areas for short periods of time.
"If we can get 100,000 microgrid-connected users to go to the main grid for 15 minutes (as they say, a local or community solar farm or a different generator, plus a battery or other storage) Extensive developments are a danger to the past, and there will be no more.
This is exactly the strategy that New York has recorded in response to Hurricane Sandy. South Australia makes its first movements on the Yorke Peninsula with the Dalrymple battery.
The endpoint and 100 periodic durability
So, how is this all shape and what does it look at? In essence, many new equipment and many new thinking.
The amount of wind and sunshade is set to more than 80GW, there will be a fair storage of 200-500GWh and flexible capacity (35GW), some straightforward network investments, and many of them are "decentralized" in homes and businesses.
But that's just the start. It will change the nature of electricity, and electricity will then become an important part of the primary energy saving – by electrically transporting, producing and replacing gas in homes and businesses.
What can the consumer do? Be efficient, add solar, go digital (smart meters and monitors), watch a battery, and tell your politicians that you want to focus on a long-term policy.
Note: Tune here to listen to our latest episode of Energy Insiders podcast (done for the Solar Oration).