Sunday , August 1 2021

Up here, the rinth axis of "fixed terms" came

Inflation far from going any way further. The March forecasts (tomorrow will know the official data) and April are not entirely flattering. The reference domain appears to be stationed at as much as 67% in just a year. In this context, the suggested offerings for fixed terms in non-modified pesos appear to have stabilized.


It should be noted that, after the last Copernike turnaround on the maintenance of Leliq by the banks, it was expected that the high reference rates would be transferred to the passive rates of the fixed terms in pesos. Some of this happened in & # 39; the second half of March and stayed in & # 39; the first days of April. In average, in the last thirty days, the established rates rose between 600 and 800 percentage points (6% and 8%). Nevertheless, the spread between the reference and passive preparations remains high at 2,000 points (20%). This year, the lowest spread in the middle of February was below 10%. Therefore, the official requests for banks at that time to come and earn a similar passive rate were compared to average rates of over 50% in a year.

It is realistic, however, something different. For example, in the last thirty days, the rate of a fixed term in pesos for an individual ranged from $ 100,000 from 35% to 43% per year. While for a $ 100,000 to $ 500,000 placement it was adjusted from 36.5% to 43.8% and for larger amounts, from $ 500,000 to $ 1 million from 37.2% to 44.6% and for more deposits as $ 1 million from 38.9% to 46.4%. That is, no one in & # 39; the backlog comes 50% in & # 39; t year. Only in the case of business placements, that is, of legal entities, the settled rates are present and even easily 50% in & # 39; t year (50.9%).

So in the last thirty days, adjusting by using the reference and Leliq schemes (the limit that banks can have from 65% to 100% of their depots and the interest rate guaranteed in 62.5%) April), the yields are agreed with the specialists, not companies, for the fixed terms in pesos of between 30 and 60 days (for longer periods wasting fees) increased up to 800 percent points, due to 50%.

At the moment nothing seems to indicate that the banks are going to fight more aggressively for the fixed terms. The fees are stored at & # 39; the short term. In addition, the strategy has a lot of influence in terms of seductive specialists to run more on fixed terms. It will be necessary to see how the change now stands with the timely announcements of Treasury dollars and the breadth of coins of any agro-exporters. In the middle there are still tight striking details. If the players trust that the BCRA has the dollar's stabilization, that ability can improve. However, it cannot be neglected that it follows the realm of "zero growth" from a monetary base, raw material, for secondary money.

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