At end, tomorrow will have a long and distant wait, and the time of & # 39; The truth comes: The Treasury will start selling in the Central Bank's shopping center to $ 60 million a day, much of which comes from & # 39; recent & # 39; an IMF – the rest, of Leten tenders conducted by the Treasury, for volatility in & # 39; Reduce a price from $ one in & # 39; The future of & always always complex previous months of an election match (in that case, key).
There will be a total of $ 9,600 to the end of the year, which is transferred to the square (for tax purposes, according to the official version), as it is known by the Minister of Finance, Nicolás Dujovne – after negotiations with the owner of Fund, Christine Lagarde – just one month ago, at a time when the dollar is trading below $ 42 in one retail brand.
From that day until the beginning of April, the exchange rate started a fortnightly path, product of & # 39; election; Election elections – size of & # 39; an incorrect data from any Inflation, not originating from & # 39; an attacking abnegation of a majority of & # 39; upcoming months against the US currency. Thus, the detailed price, almost unstoppable, went to reach a minimum of $ 41.02 on March 18 to release $ 45, on April 5 (reached $ 44.96 by volume). .com, that is, almost 10% increase in less than three weeks, with the larger dollar always within the Non-Intervention Zone (ZNI), with the IMF.
While investments are further down their portfolio, the BCRA tried to track them with the Leliq report, which has been specifically surveyed, up to a maximum of 68.3% at the end of March, and promotes a 62.5% floor to the end of the month. the waiting period for an important fact: that the agro-export sector is starting to increase from its business delegations to & # 39; in the middle of & # 39; e gross amount. The latter was consolidated in the last five business days, with sales in some days from up to 150 million US $, which made it quietly (if the dollar runs, the image of President Macri falls), since the US currency The largest likely drop in more than six months (-4% in one MULC).
"Not only will the dollar come from the field, but also investments and banks put positions and move them into other allowances with higher capabilities in pesos, before a seemingly more economical economic scenario," said Fernando Izzo, analyst at ABC Exchange Market.
For his part, Alejandro Bianchi, investment manager of InvertirOnLine.com, said, based on & # 39; s dollar sales & # 39; s it will execute the Central Bank, "supply and demand will be balance." "Approximately between this month and November we must have a positive trade balance of $ 500 million. So if you add the $ 1,300 million that the Treasury sells and the $ 500 million of the trading balance sells, that will $ 1,800 million constant delivery on the dollar field, "also presided over by the president of Argentina's CFA society.
On the bigger offer, there's the sale of & # 39; a dollar from & # 39; being an IMF, the increases of & # 39; added a fixed term, which is on average in 46.35% (up to 59 days in private banks), according to the BCRA. "With this scenario, we want to start to further increase the sales of exporters," said Bianchi, "we have a record year in November" between 80% -85% liquidated, counting "There is some room to supply and you must use your own capital. "
Now, with a robust offer, there is a possibility that the big-sale card (now at $ 42.18) would return to & # 39; an intervention zone (today at $ 39,663)?
"If we take into account what the last week, very quietly, needs to offer more, still more rest. But reality is that in a context of weakness in its currency, Argentina does not event, both internal and external, can influence ", financial analyst Christian Buteler evaluated. A problem of this is the high-risk landscape, which in the last few days has increased by 800 basis points and the record in & # 39; A Macri-ea (840) arrives. With this panorama, Buteler does not believe that "the price of a dollar will return to the floor of a" "non-intervention band."
For his part, Gustavo Quintana, analyst of PR Corredores de Cambio, thought this week, in the operation days before the Easter corporation, was sold, "it is possible to reduce & # 39; "To change the exchange, for the period of official currency lists".
In any case, Quintana does not expect the dollar to lower the lower limit of ZNI & # 39; a direct future. "I think this time costs more than it did in the past, but it is an event that it does not end."