Saturday , May 28 2022

Dollar: What Worried Is Not The Ticket, But The Rise In The National Risk – 11/27/2018



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There were seven weeks quiet and change Dollars stuck to a "floor" From Flightband but one day the bill is on a peso and all yellow lights of # 39; The Argentine economy goes up.

Some of this happened on Monday when the retailer dollar wasted $ 40, and the base is closed at $ 39.05 and reaches the highest values ​​of the year, which was enough to wake the sensitivity of the dual market.

The race lasted min and on Tuesday the group, the most relevant dollar was operated by volumes and operations, with a loss of 1.3% at $ 38.55.

No one knows but the Minister of Finance, Nicolás Dujovne He went on tour in order to generate peace by saying:"We are very happy with the dollar, it moves very fast."

The rest of Dujovne, in reality, reaches the fact that # the Central Bank, Guido Sandleris, it has to prevent that is ready to remove all marketweights needed to ensure the smooth replacement.

It also adds to the rest of & # 39; Ministers the progress of the International Monetary Fund that will be and will be unlocked new streak of 'e loan ($ 7.6 billion) the recording of the mission of the office in Buenos Aires Recommendations of the goals of government in the area of ​​reducing the primary financial deficit and monetary contract of # 39; the Central Bank.

Central Reserves increased US $ 4,952 million, up to $ 53,955 million In October, a month in which the purchase of cards was felt by private individuals (they received $ 900 million), but without the process dollarizer.

De flight of dollar Up to this year, US $ 25,959 million, a record that indicates the rate of exchange for a large part and the leap in the dollar between April and September will lead to the recession of & # 39; 39; the past few months.

But the calm came in hand with the effort that the amount of money would not grow and the high rates that the Central Bank would pay for the banks would provide Liquidity Letters (Leliq).

The Leliq began to pay 74% annually and today dropped to 61.24% in what was presented, according to the construction of a dollar on Monday, as a "floor" to count.

The Central Bank has announced its intention to understand the money in January starting from January of 60% of # t the year to the end until the end of the year. No one knows and all claims Sandleris will accept "test and error" Try to find, well, when it comes to lowering the rates.

The government believes that with the expenditure of IMF and the dollar of # e white and maize exports, This will start in January, requires tools to keep the exchange mark tired. But dollar problems have not ended.

In recent days, the national risk far away, It went from 600 to 700 points, it makes it clear that foreign markets continue with high levels of distrust over the Argentine economic future.

They doubt that Argentina can pay its debt after 2020 and it is clear that the strong support received by the country of the IMF (US $ 57.1 billion) makes the office for privileged creditor.

This adds to the political doubts that have been summarized in a question: What happens as Cristina Kirchner with Mauricio Macri in October election?

Churchism is clear about the fear he generates on a foreign market and it is no accident that, in a report published in # 39; a politician, the former minister Axel Kicillof I talk about "Defends Business Profitability" and that "Today a negotiation with the IMF can be done by a force".

Kicillof, point in Kirchner's skin replacement, is also preceded by & # 39; An amplitude of PJ then quotes: "I hope everyone perchist says" peronist " adding to the old justizist slogan, the two Peron served with Jose López Rega and Menem with María Julia Alsogaray of Movement is broad.

The sources of uncertainty are multiplied by politics and the economy learns well: long-term bonds of Argentina (2046 and 100 years bondings) Annual rentals of 10% offer, very much, but not the lack of international investors.

The financial picture shows a checked dollar on & # 39; a short term on the gates of an election year that generates expectations regarding the political outcome and generates its consequences in terms of capital movements.

In the middle is the game of & # 39; e possible low inflation and improving economic activity in the first quarter of next year.

Meanwhile and in the short term, the government hopes that international aid will be on the G20 summit of # 39; Leading leaders of the world would come this weekend, giving you a lot of fresh air after several days of scrutiny and disgrace generally for the violence of acts that all our arguments embrace.

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