Tuesday , May 11 2021

¿Cuándo podría ocurrir la próxima corrida?



There are only a couple of 21 million millions of dollars in caring for the FMI this year, the country has gained more than 18MM of the emails, but only a few dollars over 25 pounds – The fundamentally stands at 40 and is the one that the eco-nomic of the academic.

This is a recurring condition of the year when it comes to cuatro corridas cambiarias. This is a two-week period, which ends at the end of April, after 20 to 25 pesos. In the second quarter of June, in the last year, one week and a half, you have to pay 28 pesos. La tercera corrida fue durante les primeros dias de agosto, que pas de desde esos 28 a 30, para sufrir la cuarta fin fin es ese mes superg los 40 pesos.

cuadro corridas cambiarias.jpg

Muchos analistas pronostican that 2019 will be a very good earthquake, just because the merchants estranged their skills in the waves and tensions, including the months since 2018 when the year before they came to President. Además, obviamente, que que no parece factible que se quiebre el arrestre actualmente actual, haciendo entonces que sus expectativas sean muy volátiles. Por todo ello, es interesante indagar cuándo podría irrumpir -i es que irrumpe- la próxima crisis cambiaria.

La responsuesta parece facile: en marzo de 2019. ¿Por qué? Son por el mundo el elementos que le adjudicana a dicha fecha una buena probabilidad de que ello ocurra (si es que hay nuevas crisis).

The first thing to do with the venues is The first monthly premiums for the previous year have reached its real estate: 6,080 millions of dollars in dollars (2,244 bonuses and 3,336 ls), and 6.223 million (3.636 y 2.587 resp.) and March 10,610 million (8,071 y 2.539). It decides that there are 23 millions of dollars when it comes to March 12, 2010, the IMF's demarcation. It requires the gobierno to renovate a 50% refinery for a continuous supply of reserves, and a strong supply of cambiarias.

In second place, the bimetree of February is the most "seco" of the year in the liquidity exchanges. Por lo cual, no habría allí entrada genuina de dolas, sino que incluso la demanda de divisa suele por seu consumos relacionados a los trajes en el exterior por turismo.

En tercer lugar, with an ecological diagnostic as optimistic as the espresso gobierno, the economy continues to cope with the march, declining the crisis all the time, because the liquidity of the coca-cola is in good shape in April / May.

En cuarto lugar, and the March comes to the electoral elections in the country in the sentence. For a reason, the commander has succeeded in electoring in the distant provinces, including 17 of the 24 districts of the country (since the beginning of this year). There are four districts in terms of peronism that have more chances of imponing. Y por lo tanto, hacendo que el ciclo electoral presidencial comunidad en marzo, quando los mercados que el kirchnerismo siga fuerte o con altas chances de ganar las elecciones como hasta ahora muestran las encuestas.

In relation to the last, y en quinto lugar, The historic misery has ended March as one of the few more times for the economy, as it suits the day for politics. Last time the crisis began its epicenter all: in 1989 the corridor that commenced in February, exploded in March; In 2001, they had more than one quarter of the capital escapes in the Economics Ministry with Machinea, López Murphy and Cavallo.

Finally, after all, and sexto lugar, and the marching expectations of económicas can lead to exaggerated negatives, incubating the perfect torment. There are many venues, the sequel of dollars, the electoral electoral, the economic and historical heritage of generating a dynamic eco-economic dynamics of reverting. The culmination of generating a massive dolarization of carriers has proven to be a very important catering and a long-term business trip.

La pregunta final entonces es qué el á Gobierno para recibir el otro y evitar que los últimos calores del verano no levante laquell la temperatura para que el dólar no se vuelva a disparar. Sólo el tiempo nos lo dirá.


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